July 2026 has gone down as the driest July on record for several areas of the south-western Western Cape, according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS).
SAWS says several severe weather systems during May and early June 2026 significantly improved water storage across much of the province. However, a strong blocking high-pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean later prevented most cold fronts from reaching the Western Cape.
As a result, only three weak cold fronts moved across the south-western Cape during July. Since the region receives most of its annual rainfall between June and August, the lack of frontal systems led to exceptionally dry conditions.
Preliminary rainfall data shows that Cape Town International Airport recorded just 14.4 mm of rain during July – the lowest July total since records began in 1958. This is only about 16% of the airport's average July rainfall. The previous record low was 18.0 mm, recorded in 1987.
The Weather Service says seasonal forecasts had already indicated a strong likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the winter months, with short-term forecasts suggesting the dry pattern could continue into the first week of August.
Several other stations also recorded their driest July on record:
Cape Town International Airport: 14.4 mm (68-year record)
SA Observatory: 15.6 mm (91-year record)
Malmesbury: 3.2 mm (33-year record)
Kirstenbosch: 65.0 mm (29-year record)
Hermanus: 12.0 mm (21-year record)
Paarl: 27.6 mm (17-year record)
SAWS also highlighted the stark contrast between July 2025 and July 2026. Several cold fronts crossed the Western Cape during July 2025, with many stations receiving more than 100 mm of rainfall. In contrast, July 2026 was the driest on record across much of the south-western Cape.
With El Niño expected to strengthen over the coming months, the likelihood of a warmer-than-normal summer over the Western Cape is expected to increase.
Given the uncertainty surrounding rainfall during the 2027 winter season, the South African Weather Service has encouraged residents to continue using water sparingly in the months ahead.
SAWS says several severe weather systems during May and early June 2026 significantly improved water storage across much of the province. However, a strong blocking high-pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean later prevented most cold fronts from reaching the Western Cape.
As a result, only three weak cold fronts moved across the south-western Cape during July. Since the region receives most of its annual rainfall between June and August, the lack of frontal systems led to exceptionally dry conditions.
Preliminary rainfall data shows that Cape Town International Airport recorded just 14.4 mm of rain during July – the lowest July total since records began in 1958. This is only about 16% of the airport's average July rainfall. The previous record low was 18.0 mm, recorded in 1987.
The Weather Service says seasonal forecasts had already indicated a strong likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the winter months, with short-term forecasts suggesting the dry pattern could continue into the first week of August.
Several other stations also recorded their driest July on record:
Cape Town International Airport: 14.4 mm (68-year record)
SA Observatory: 15.6 mm (91-year record)
Malmesbury: 3.2 mm (33-year record)
Kirstenbosch: 65.0 mm (29-year record)
Hermanus: 12.0 mm (21-year record)
Paarl: 27.6 mm (17-year record)
SAWS also highlighted the stark contrast between July 2025 and July 2026. Several cold fronts crossed the Western Cape during July 2025, with many stations receiving more than 100 mm of rainfall. In contrast, July 2026 was the driest on record across much of the south-western Cape.
With El Niño expected to strengthen over the coming months, the likelihood of a warmer-than-normal summer over the Western Cape is expected to increase.
Given the uncertainty surrounding rainfall during the 2027 winter season, the South African Weather Service has encouraged residents to continue using water sparingly in the months ahead.