The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that South Africa is likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures this spring as a very strong El Niño develops.
SAWS said the current El Niño is already above the threshold for a very strong event and could exceed 3°C, potentially making it the strongest on record.
The latest forecast for October to December 2026 indicates drier and warmer conditions across most of South Africa. A similar pattern is expected from November to January.
SAWS noted that while El Niño usually brings drier conditions to southern Africa, it does not always result in drought. Previous strong events have produced different rainfall outcomes.
The combination of a very strong El Niño and global warming could also make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded, with more frequent and potentially severe heatwaves expected if rainfall remains below normal.
SAWS urged the public, disaster management authorities and weather-sensitive industries to follow seasonal updates and daily forecasts to prepare for heatwaves, water shortages and other high-impact weather events.
SAWS said the current El Niño is already above the threshold for a very strong event and could exceed 3°C, potentially making it the strongest on record.
The latest forecast for October to December 2026 indicates drier and warmer conditions across most of South Africa. A similar pattern is expected from November to January.
SAWS noted that while El Niño usually brings drier conditions to southern Africa, it does not always result in drought. Previous strong events have produced different rainfall outcomes.
The combination of a very strong El Niño and global warming could also make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded, with more frequent and potentially severe heatwaves expected if rainfall remains below normal.
SAWS urged the public, disaster management authorities and weather-sensitive industries to follow seasonal updates and daily forecasts to prepare for heatwaves, water shortages and other high-impact weather events.